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Presidential Election Surge
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Midterm Election Decline
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High Level of Information and Turnout
Short-term forces favor party winning the presidency
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Low Level of Information and Turnout
No systematic tilt of short-term forces
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¯
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¯
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Advantaged Partisans
(winning president's party)
- Turnout: higher than usual because of popular presidential candidate
Disadvantaged Partisans
(losing presidential candidate's party)
- Turnout: less than usual because of cross-pressures
Independents
- Vote Choice: splits in favor of winning president's party
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Advantaged Partisans
(president's party)
- Turnout: normal rate for low-stimulus election
Disadvantaged Partisans
(out party)
- Turnout: normal rate for low-stimulus election
Independents
- Vote Choice: no systematic tilt to either party
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¯
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¯
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Vote gains for congressional candidates of the party winning the presidency
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Vote losses for congressional candidates of the president's party
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