Measuring the Value of Incumbency
Sophomore Surge and Retirement Slump
- Sophomore surge
- The difference between members' share of the vote in their first reelection bid to their seats (i.e. to become sophomores)
and that from when they first won their seat (i.e. to become freshmen)
- Retirement slump
- The difference between members' share of the vote in their final successful reelection bid and that of their party's candidate
in the next election in that district after they retire.
Source: Alford, John and David Brady. 1993. "Personal and Partisan Advantage in U.S. Congressional Elections, 1846-1990."
Congress Reconsidered. 5th Ed. Lawrence Dodd and Bruce Oppenheimer, Editors. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press