Equilibrium and Exposure in Congressional Elections


Note: The Equilibrium number of seats is the mean seat share for the entire span of the electoral era (1932-1992: 261) and (1994-present: 206)


Note: "Relative to Equilibrium" refers to the number of seats over/above equilibrium the Democrats hold following an election.

For more information about the ideas of equilibrium and exposure, see:
Waterman, Richard W., Bruce I. Oppenheimer, and James A. Stimson. 1991. "Sequence and Equilibrium in Congressional Elections: An Integrated Approach."  Journal of Politics.  53: 372-393.