The Potential (and Actual) Effects of Campaigns

Early Vote Intention
Consistent
with Dispositions 		Inconsistent
with Dispositions 		Undecided
November Vote Consistent with
early disposition
Reinforcement


37.2%
Conversion
"Reactivation"

2.6%
Activation


44.4%
Inconsisitent with
early disposition
Conversion


2.6%
Reinforcement


2.6%
Conversion


10.7%

Adapted from Finkel, Steven E. (1993). "Reexamining the 'Minimal Effects' Model in Recent Presidential Campaigns." The Journal of Politics.  55: 1-21. (Table 3)
Percentages respresent total percent in each category based on Finkel's analysis of 1980 data.